FORECAST DISCUSSION:

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR TD 20W WILL REMAIN THE STR TO THE WEST, CENTERED SOUTH OF HONG KONG. THE RIDGE HOWEVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY BUT RATHER WILL QUICKLY EXIT STAGE RIGHT AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM, ALLOWING TD 20W TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A WEAK STEERING PATTERN, CAUGHT BETWEEN A LARGE STR COMPLEX OVER SOUTHERN CHINA, AN EXTENSION OF THE STR EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM MINDANAO THROUGH GUAM AND TROUGHING TO NORTH OVER KOREA. SO FOR THE 24 HOURS FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD AS THE VARIOUS RIDGES JOSTLE FOR DOMINANCE. BY TAU 48, THE STR EXTENSION TO THE SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST TO BREAK OFF INTO A DISCRETE ANTICYCLONE, AND START MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE CONTINUING TO BUILD. AFTER TAU 48, THIS NEW RIDGE CENTER WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE, PUSHING TD 20W ONTO A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE EXACT POSITION OF THE RIDGE CENTER RELATIVE TO TD 20W WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER TAU 96. THE FURTHER EAST THE CENTER, THE FURTHER EAST THE TRACK AND VICE VERSA. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER EAST OF TAIWAN BUT SKIRTS THE EASTERN COAST AT A RELATIVELY CLOSE RANGE. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS GOING TO ENJOY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE NEAR-TERM, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND THE WIND FIELD SYMMETRIZES. THE PACE OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN EARNEST AFTER TAU 36, AS BY THIS POINT THE CIRCULATION IS FULLY FORMED, IT IS MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE HIGHEST OHC ALONG THE TRACK AND THE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT BECOMES INTENSE, WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 48, IF NOT SOONER. BUT THIS IS JUST SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE REAL FIREWORKS, WHICH COMMENCE AT TAU 48. RAPID INTENSIFICATION (IR) IS FORECAST BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72, FOLLOWED BY NEAR-RI UP TO TAU 96, WHEN THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT OR NEAR 115 KNOTS. INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN, AND INCREASED SHEAR WILL RESULT IN MODEST WEAKENING BY TAU 120. ONE FACTOR THAT MAY INFLUENCE THE PEAK INTENSITY IS MODERATE TO HIGH MID-LEVEL SHEAR, WHICH THE GFS IN PARTICULAR IS PREDICTING TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM AROUND TAU 72. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS INTENSITY GUIDANCE PICKS UP ON THIS AND PEAKS THE SYSTEM AT ABOUT 95 KNOTS.

예보에 대한 토론

24시간:24시간동안 홍콩의 남쪽에 위치한 STR(아열대고기압)이 태풍의 경로를 결정할것임

시간이 지남에 따라 남중국해의 STR은 서쪽으로 이동해 북베트남으로 하게됨 이때 TD 20W는 남서쪽으로 이동하게 됨

24시간이후:이 STR이 괌으로 까지 연결되면서 한국 북쪽에 위치한 저기압대 사이에서 느리게 이동할것

2시간~48시간까지:24시간 동안 고기압과 대치(?)하면서 서쪽으로 느리게 이동 48시간이 경과하게 되면 괌까지 확장한 STR은 분리되면서 북쪽으로 이동하게 되고 태풍도 같이 올라가게 됨

48시간이후:이 절단된 고기압이 태풍의 주요이동 원인이 되면서 북쪽으로 태풍을 밀어주게됨 이고기압의 중심이 96시간이후의 경로에 큰 역할을 하게 되고 고기압중심이 더욱 동쪽으로 위치하면 태풍의 경로는 더욱 동쪽으로 반대는 더 서쪽으로 이동하게 됨

태풍강도에대한 토론

태풍은 예보기간동안 유리한 환경에 위치하게됨 초반에는 느르게 발달 36시간이후에는 빠르게 발달할것

48시간이 경과하면 태풍수준에 도달하고 48시간~72시간까지 급격하게 급발달예상

최대 115노트근접하고 대만과의 상호작용으로

120시간을 도달하면 약간 약화를 예상 윈드시어(전단풍)으로 이 태풍의 최대 발달정도가 결정될것을 예상

TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM

   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM 

INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//

경로는 0~72시간 사이는 보통

72시간~120시간이후는 낮음의 신뢰도로 평가

강도측면에서 0~120시간 모두 보통으로 평가

GEFS앙상블 업데이트 앙상블 누들이 대부분 세력상향 평균값도 상향 남중국해로 진출하는 경로가 대부분 삭제당하고 대만 상륙예측도 없어짐

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.29 ARC in MD GRAY Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.56 ARC in MD GRAY at Lat: 18:45:00 N Lon: 124:56:24 E

현재 저기압은 약간 곡선형태로 감은 상태